https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXz9!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb67231f6-dbb8-4e14-91fe-7ae0f8a3ef80_1536x1086.jpeg President Donald Trump monitors Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, 2026. (White House) and R: Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei (Iranian state media) Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to begin in Pakistan this weekend, assuming Hezbollah’s foolhardy attacks on Israel and Iran’s reluctance to reopen the Strait of Hormuz do not derail them. The regime says publicly it’s sticking to a 10-point plan that the White House literally threw in the trash, but the White House claims to have a different set of points that President Trump called “workable.” Trump’s demands, by contrast, are clear: open the Strait of Hormuz, stop enriching uranium, and give up the nuclear material buried during last summer’s Operation Midnight Hammer. Free Beacon columnist Mike Watson writes about whether and how the U.S. might achieve victory at the negotiating table: Forcing Iran’s rulers to give up their nuclear program and agree to inspections that verify their continued compliance would be a significant victory. For decades, Iran’s rulers have claimed that they have the right to enrich uranium. According to the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, they used that supposed right to stockpile enough uranium that was just shy of weapons-grade to make 10 bombs. Other parts of the regime have researched how to use that material to make nuclear weapons. The knowledge of how to make a nuclear bomb cannot be fully removed, but the material needed to do so can. This would not fully blunt the threat to the Strait, but it would dull it. The United States can demonstrate that closing the Strait is a losing proposition for Iran without necessarily forcing it open in combat. The regime has prioritized the nuclear program for decades over nearly everything else, especially the wellbeing of the Iranian people. Abandoning it despite having blocked the Strait would reveal to all that the regime fears continued American and Israeli bombardment far more than many believe. Threats to the Strait could still spike oil prices at inopportune times, much as they did before the war, but they would be a dead man’s hand, not a trump card. A victory of this kind would not bring true peace to the region, but it would constrain Iran’s options. Iran had depended on its legions of terrorist lackeys and missile arsenal to deter the United States and Israel from halting its nuclear program. But the proxies have had little impact on this round of fighting. Gen. Dan Caine said that over 80 percent of Iran’s missile facilities are “gone,” the United States “hit” a similar share of its nuclear industrial base, and “attacked” about 90 percent of Iran’s weapons factories. If Iran’s minions are neither reliable nor effective, its long-range missiles depleted and irreplaceable, and its threat to close the Strait defeatable, the mullahs will need to find new options to threaten their neighbors and the United States. READ MORE: Managing the Mullahs: What a Negotiated Victory Over Iran Looks Like Elsewhere: