L: Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei (Iranian state media) R: Chinese president Xi Jinping (Getty Images) A school of thought has emerged among lawmakers and national security analysts over the past decade that says America can’t afford to expend time, energy, or military resources in the Middle East if it is to face down China. Free Beacon columnist Mike Watson argues that it’s a false choice because “Iran’s leadership must fail, and be seen to fail, to reduce the threat of further war in the region and elsewhere.” Stationing enough forces around China to maintain a favorable balance of power is important for deterring Chinese aggression, but it is insufficient. Deterrence is ultimately a mental game. Leaders are deterred from action when they think the costs outweigh the benefits, and they make that calculation based on their perception of the adversary’s power and will. Both elements are necessary. After Oct. 7, the Biden administration sent an extra aircraft carrier to the Middle East, in the words of National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, “to send that clear message of deterrence.” The military had the power to punish Iranian aggression, but President Biden lacked the will to fight back, and the Iranians knew it. They harassed U.S. forces with drone attacks until they eventually killed three Americans and wounded dozens more. Xi will decide not to attack if he is convinced the United States has the ability and the will to defeat him. Trump has chosen to launch a big operation against Iran, and if he fails to achieve decisive results at a reasonable cost, or if the attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz founders, Xi will reevaluate American power and the president’s skill. This would heighten the danger. READ MORE: The False Choice Between Defeating Iran and Deterring China Elsewhere: